A 4% change in solar activity can be easily shown to have a
forcing impact of around 9.5W/m2 ignoring feedbacks.
The forcing ignoring feedbacks due to changes in CO2
concentration from C0 to C is given by
DF = 5.35 ln(C/C0)
This works out that carbon dioxide levels then would have to
be about 6 (exp 9.5/5.35) times higher than today to have the same effect as
today.
If we now assume a climate sensitivity when the solar
activity was 4% lower of say 2.50C for a doubling of CO2 levels we
can calculate the levels of CO2 to reach say 50C higher. Due to the
logarithmic effect of the forcing due to CO2 this will be a further 4 times
higher. An overall 24 times higher CO2 concentration is consistent with the
estimates we see 100’s of millions of years ago.
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